Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency sparked by the introduction of a new 28-point plan for resolving the conflict appeared – momentarily – to have been contained. A Washington representative spoke of "significant advancement" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its retaliation: a renewed assault of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Diplomacy and Destruction
The chain of conflicting incidents captured the grim essence of the recent timeframe. By day, diplomatic battles are waged: optimistic declarations are issued from multiple capitals. Significant resources is devoted on restraining certain initiatives. By night, Russian leadership clearly shows the world that, for them, war remains the key method for achieving "settlement".
Nighttime Reality
As the offensive developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's exposure was exposed. Ukraine is able to track rocket firings from Russian territory, a capacity afforded by up-to-date information. From vantage locations, defense planes that had been scrambled to intercept incoming aerial threats streaked across the sky – advanced fighter aircraft provided to Ukraine by European allies.
Moments later, Kyiv's air-defence systems activated: multiple launches fired to intercept a incoming threat. This was a modern interception technology at work, most likely provided by allied countries. Every firing creates sudden vibrations, rattling buildings. The moment of terror quickly transforms into grim resignation: maybe the incoming missile won't hit its mark this time, preventing destruction from ruin and further power outages.
Persistent Threats
Not long after, a heavy machine gun opened up on a aerial vehicle in the vicinity, part of a rapid response unit – most likely allied-provided weaponry. Sadly, the projectiles didn't strike the hostile drone – it continued its flight toward its objective.
With pauses, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv greeted the early updates: seven people killed, damage and infrastructure problems in numerous residences as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As customarily, everyone still continued their routines – enduring hostilities. But those entire period illustrated Ukraine's essential dependence on international aid – a dependence that European nations are evidently unprepared to replace in the short term.
Failed Diplomacy
The detailed framework from American leadership generated strong feelings, debate and serious worry – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after prior negotiation attempts and international summits.
Every new approach from US leadership follows the consistent cycle: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, effectively counters. They contain the crisis but never actually win the battle. This cycle will, certainly, continue.
Strategic Calculations
It is easy to blame particular leaders of consistently pushing Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the whole story. US administration functions according to a assumption understood by international relations experts: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have lost on the battlefield. The White House believes that it is unfeasible to force Russia to relinquish the areas that it already controls in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The issue is that while accepting these circumstances, Washington does nothing to discourage Russia, through diplomacy or military means, from assuming that the current condition will not evolve additionally in its benefit in the months ahead.
Divergent Views
Therefore, the Kremlin is convinced that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its allies are approaching exhaustion. Their reason to agree to terms that does not give them the maximum possible gain is virtually nonexistent. There may be many attempts to achieve ceasefire, but they will continue as long as Russia's government remains highly assured in the outcome.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still hold out, progressively conceding people and territory but avoiding a complete military breakdown until circumstances change in its advantage.
Existing Situation
Factually, there are no genuine requirements for a truce. Now, individual motivations are becoming relevant: political desires to negotiate peace and secure international recognition, and the government's twin challenges – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the national cause against any initiative Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their attention does not move to domestic problems. And although their task will now be considerably more difficult after current events, it remains quite doubtful that this will modify their basic position.
These opposing factors are guiding negotiations.
Assessment and Future
It took a just a single week to eliminate the 28 points of the latest plan. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by US administration, resistance by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with pacifying measures of negotiators, and finally, recent disclosures, all did their job.
While new proposals based on previous concepts are approaching, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off diplomatic offensives from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and demonstrate specific hesitation to modify developments, if they stand together and enhance their military capacity at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the coming months, mainly require continued Western support.
