A decade following the UK stumbled into a rushed referendum that divided the country and triggered chaos, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating convulsions for which nobody is equipped.
That represents the warning from two prominent writers from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a potentially fraught and monumental referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gain traction rapidly," the commentator remarked. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our region remains very unstable."
New Title Aims to Stir Debate
The team have analysed the political, economic and societal rationales for any structural alteration in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the issue with a roadshow of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everyone, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a binary, vague proposition whose results have not been clarified because then you end up with an extraordinarily polarised community where people who have lost are resistant to losing and the those successful are uncertain precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue such a time is approaching, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the likelihood, leaving it unclear when or if there could be a referendum.
Absence of Serious Debate
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has hidden the lack of informed dialogue, said the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the idea but the concrete planning which could extend past that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has taken place in scholarly circles but very few politicians or activists are willing to participate with the fundamentals. For instance, what type of nation might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, no writer supports unity or the status quo. Each authors two articles that seek impartiality in detailing the rationale for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, gathering economic and societal data, past examples and constitutional models.
Discussions range over identity markers, duties, healthcare systems, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to educate and encourage discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there is still lacking a discussion," said the writer. "Discussion suggests an acceptance of the concept that there could be good arguments on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where citizens say they prefer unification but oppose paying higher taxes or adopting a different emblem to recognise pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to work out what the plan from pro-unification movements is beyond just saying: 'We want a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride thinks a national vote in his era is probable and that it might occur abruptly. "It is possible just a mad or a ill-advised or a incompetent official who states: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have plausible, justified points, he stated. "Somebody will succeed here and the other side will ultimately not succeed but both parties has got something to acquire from the other's arguments."
Request for More Extensive Debate
Westminster must engage with the dialogue, said O’Toole. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It is a British issue equally as it is an Irish issue."
